SECRET//REL TO USA
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
DEFENSE PENTAGON, WASHINGTON, DC
27 JULY 2018
MEMORANDUM FOR 1-506 IR, 2601 Indiana Ave, Fort Campbell, KY, United States 42223-0000
Delta Company, 5th Battalion, 101st Aviation Regiment, 2601 Indiana Ave, Fort Campbell, KY, United States 42223-0000
74th Squadron Detachment, 23rd Wing, 4343 George Street, Moody AFB, GA, United States 31699-0000
SUBJECT: (S) SPLINTERED ISIS FIGHTERS
SITUATION: (S) FIGHTERS WITHDRAWING FROM SYRIA; DESTINATIONS UNKNOWN
ANALYST COMMENT: (S) Multi-sourced intelligence suggest mass desertions within the Turkish Free Syrian Army (TFSA) formations in their more radical units operating in the Afrin and Idlib regions and contrary to Turkey’s claims, these units have high concentrations of former ISIS fighters and its ISIS affiliates. Sources report more frequently that the families of ISIS fighters as missing to include numerous orphaned children of dead and missing ISIS fighters. Turkish intelligence officials are investigating these reports as there is an influx of women and children seeking asylum in addition to the suspected coordinated movement of ISIS operatives.
Sources inside TFSA units report friction between various units in the Afrin and Idlib regions after unidentified armed assailants raided an unspecified number of its armories stealing arms, ammunition, and explosives (AAE). The Turkish Army also reported a spike of targeted successful raids against its Forward Operating Bases where unknown numbers of arms and ammunition were taken. Although unconfirmed, several Turkish news agencies reported multiple murders and disappearance of Turkish military advisors and handlers assigned to these high concentrated ISIS units. Intelligence is unable to confirm those details at this time. TFSA SIGINT activity suggests 500-2,000 ISIS fighters are currently missing from its frontline units and a considerably larger number of ISIS families, women, children, and orphans are reported as high as 4,000 individuals.
It is likely most of the missing ISIS fighters received advanced military training from the Turkish advisers during the TFSA’s preparation for a planned offensive against the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF). One report indicated Operation “Olive Branch” was to occur in the coming weeks but that is yet to be confirmed. The combined ISIS and TFSA military training and combat experience of these ISIS fighters against SDF make this group a significantly increased threat, and their seizure of military-grade weapons from the successful raids against the armories and depots increases their lethality and capabilities.
The ISIS fighters who have gone missing, who the Turks believed to be moderates, are proving to be more radicalized than first thought as their plan unravels with this “training step” now concluded at the expense of the TFSA. Multiple agencies from Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan report an increase in communications indicative of an extensive network capable of reaching several thousand members. Intelligence estimates predict the current ISIS stage is the movement of individuals and groups to locations were they acquire the AAE and begin training and operational preparations.
Intelligence indicates that the reasons for the desertions vary widely. Disillusionment with the fight in Syria was the most commonly sited reason. Many messages on social media have been intercepted by various intelligence agencies as stating that the fight was going poorly, and many wished to continue their Jihad elsewhere. It's unknown if there is any sort of group cohesion among the deserters, and if so to what extent. Based on analysis of social media messages there appears to be a strong "word of mouth" component and lacking in centralized leadership.
The Intelligence Community is working feverishly to determine the current organization of the individuals leaving their units, as well as their destinations. All messages that were intercepted contained locations to meet inside of Syria, and it's likely that they have departed from there. Increased movement and communications in Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan indicate they are heading east, but the ultimate destination is unconfirmed at this time.
Updates will be reported as new actionable information is obtained.
Classified By: S-2 Intelligence Command
Reason: 1.4(a) and (c)
Declassify On: 20280727
END REPORT
SECRET//REL TO USA
These published documents are the fictional works of the S-2 Intelligence Team of the 506th IR Realism Unit
