TOP SECRET//NOFORN
UNITED STATES ARMY
INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMAND, FORT BELVOIR, VA
01 JUNE 2024
MOLDOVA: Separatists Request for Russian Assistance
(U) Administrative
*All acronyms utilized in the following brief are proactively defined and utilized strictly for the streamlining of text and characters. All acronyms in the following report are defined/transcribed in full upon initial use and then abbreviated for subsequent use. The "Spoilers" marked part below contains utilized acronyms/abbreviations and their definitions and is closed simply to condense report size.
NOFORN/NF - No Foreign Dissemination: caveat is used to identify intelligence that an originator has determined that may not be provided in any form to foreign governments, international organizations, coalition partners, foreign nations, or immigrant aliens without foreign disclosure approval. Previously, this was seen/used by S-2/S-3 in the form of classification marking (SECRET//REL TO USA).
C - Confidential: lowest classification level of information, where unauthorized disclosure would cause serious damage to national security.
TS - Top Secret: applied to information, the unauthorized disclosure of which reasonably could be expected to cause 'exceptionally grave damage' to national security that the original classification authority is able to identify or describe.
SCI - Sensitive Compartmented Information: classified information concerning or derived from sensitive intelligence sources, methods, or analytical processes.
KZSR - Korsac and Zimnitrita Separatist Regions.
(C) Executive Summary(C)The leader of the separatist AMIC party, Vladislav Bulat, has approached Russia with requests for immediate assistance in his continued campaign to oust Moldovan and United States forces from the former Moldovan regions of Korsac and Zimnitrita. Bulat is worried that the inroads made by United States forces in the past days has threatened his plans and that it is unlikely he will be able to continue his efforts to cement his influence the regions unless US forces are eliminated, or at the very least, pushed out.
(C)Bulat has requested support with weapons and ammunition as well as professional troops on the ground. He proffered to his supporters that Russian assistance in Korsac and Zimnitrita will strengthen the capabilities and resilience of AMIC’s forces and can protect the civilian population from further atrocities at the hands of US forces.
(TS//SCI) Intelligence Summary
(TS//SCI) Sensitive reporting indicates that the leader of the separatist AMIC party, Vladislav Bulat, personally met with the Russian president Vladimir Putin after a clandestine flight to Moscow to request immediate Russian intervention in the former Moldovan Korsac and Zimnitrita Separatist Regions (KZSR). During this meeting, Bulat requested that Russia provide ammunition, weapons and armored fighting vehicles, including modern T-90M tanks, MLRS artillery systems, and attack aircraft. Bulat also requested that Russia assist in the situation by issuing political statements to accompany a "proportionate military response", similar to operations in Ukraine.
(TS//SCI)Embassy liaison in Moscow has reported that the Russian president has called for an emergency meeting of members of his inner sanctum. It is likely that the request by AMIC leadership for assistance is being treated seriously. Further reporting from well placed sources close to the Russian leader highlights the possibility that Russia will use the request by Bulat as proof that all former Soviet republics are seeking to rejoin Russia, but are being kept from doing so by NATO's military force, and that the war in Ukraine is justified, with claims that “colonial expansionism” by European states under the command of the United States would not be tolerated.
(TS//SCI) SIGINT reporting and subsequent analysis has possibly identified an increase in “military chatter” from within Russian areas closest to the KZSR. Several, yet to be identified Russian Army units have been determined as planning maneuvres towards the border. Comment: At this stage it is unsure as to what degree Russia will respond to these requests, however, the Commander of Russia’s Central Military Region, Maj. Gen. Ivan Caminski, has begun a series of unscheduled air assault and amphibious exercises in the past 24 hours.
(TS//SCI)Strategic Assessment
(TS//SCI) Overt Russian involvement in the KZSR will likely announce an immediate commencement of military actions across the region, including the greater European Union. NATO’s assessment for Russian involvement is:
To fracture the Moldovan and subsequently Romania's state—politically, territorially and culturally;
To maintain sufficient territorial acquisitions to support a range of acceptable political-military outcomes;
To maintain strategic materiel overmatch;
To exhaust Moldova's ability to continue fighting—both materially and as regards Moldova's support from the international community especially the EU and United States;
To normalize the conflict’s abnormalities; and
To undercut and erode Moldova’s ability to conduct offensive operations to reclaim annexed territory.
Original Classifying Authority: 1-506th S-2 Intelligence
Classified By:1LT J. N. Lee, SFC Lowe
Reason: 1.4(a), (c), (d)
Declassify On:
20490601
END REPORT
