Text version:GLOBAL NEWS NETWORK
November 20th, 2024
BREAKING NEWS: 23 People Killed in Fighting within Fallujah & RamadiAt least 23 people have been killed in some of the worst fighting for years in the Iraqi provincial cities of Fallujah and Ramadi, sparked by the unexpected resignation of Al Anbar Governorate leader - Mohammed Nouri al-Karbouli.
Gunshots and rocket-fire rang out as supporters of Mohammed Nouri al-Karbouli clashed with security forces and militias aligned with Iran. Mr al-Karbouli has ordered his supporters to withdraw from outside provincial offices, where they have been protesting for weeks.
Iraq has been in a state of paralysis since inconclusive elections in 2021.
The violence began on Monday after Mr al-Karbouli, one of Iraq's most influential figures, and touted by many as a future national leader, said he was withdrawing from political life. Al Anbar Governorate, or Anbar Province, is the largest governorate in Iraq by area. Encompassing much of the country's western territory, it shares borders with Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The population is mostly Sunni Arabs. Ordinary life is hard in Anbar Province: The area is oil rich but many locals suffer from unemployment, corruption and a lack of basic services, with successive governments held to blame.
Iraqi internal tensions still fuel the fire of mistrust, uncertainty and corruption: Its Shia Arab majority became politically powerful after 2003, breeding resentment among Iraq's Sunni Arabs, Kurds and other minority communities.
Much of the violence has been concentrated around the city's provincial building which is now a heavily fortified area that houses government representatives and foreign offices. Iran has continued to maintain its closed borders policy with Iraq in response to the continued and ever increasing unrest, in Bagdad, some embassies are calling for the evacuation of NGO’s from Anbar Province, citing the increase in violence may spill over and encompass foreign nationals.
Activists are also protesting in the Provincial capital - Ramadi. Ramadi is a city in central Iraq, about 110 kilometres west of Baghdad and 50 kilometres west of Fallujah. It is the capital and largest city of Al Anbar Governorate which touches on Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The city extends along the Euphrates which bisects Al Anbar. The purpose of the action is to demand the liberation of protesters arrested during previous demonstrations held over the past few days for the anniversary of the October 2019 Karbala protests. Protesters have reportedly gathered in public squares. Reports indicate that security forces have deployed to monitor the protesters.
Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in the protest area until the situation stabilizes. Localized transport disruptions are likely through at least late November this year. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out, particularly if protesters are overly disruptive or if they ignore police orders to disperse. Further related protests are possible in the coming days.
Since the summer of 2015, oil-rich southern Iraq has been seeing demonstrations protesting poor services. In early June 2024, protesters in Samawah, the capital of the southern province of Muthanna bordering Saudi Arabia, mobilized against corruption. Protests in Samawah began in 2011 over poor services. Provincial protests continued in 2015 and 2018. In the latter, protests developed into a 20-day sit-in after anti-corruption protests commenced and faced a violent crackdown in neighbouring Basra.[1] In parallel to the Tishreen demonstrations in Baghdad, Samawah’s protesters held local protests from 2019 to 2021.
A key figure in recent protests is Hamid al-Yasiri, the commander of the 44th brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a government-sanctioned coalition of brigades consisting of Shia armed groups. Al-Yasiri led protests against the newly elected local government following the December 2023 provincial elections and called on Baghdad to appoint a “military governor” to govern the province instead. Before joining the PMF to combat the ‘Islamic State’ group (ISIS), al-Yasiri was the representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Rocowla—Iraq’s most senior Shia cleric—in Al Anbar making him an influential figure.
The protests swiftly led to a meeting between a provincial delegation he led and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. The PM publicly expressed eagerness to address the delegation’s grievances. Al-Yasiri vowed to continue protests unless the six demands are met. Al-Yasiri’s demands essentially seek to unseat the provincial governor and transfer control of provincial affairs to the protest movement’s leaders.
The most politically-sensitive demand is the closure of all “economic bureaus” in the province. For example, political parties with armed wings reportedly imposed royalties across provinces, seeking to benefit from the post-conflict reconstruction spending spree. The Iraqi government officially banned these bureaus in 2019.
A political activist in the protests explained that when public funds were allocated from the central government to Anbar Province, following the passage of the 2024 budget, al-Yasiri learned of a joint corrupt scheme between the local government and bureaus linked to political parties. Anbar province's financial allocations in the 2024 budget remain one of the lowest among the provinces, with a 2.8 percent share, a small increase from 2.4 percent the previous year.
The International Monetary Fund in its 2024 Article IV Consultation report assesses that economic growth will increase in 2024, driven by an expansionary three-year budget. Yet, the high spending is mismatched with an anticipated decline in oil price, leading to risks to the country’s economic stability.
While demonstrations in southern Iraq have significantly decreased compared to 2019 levels, they are roughly similar to those held in 2023. The success of Ramadi and Fallujah protests in pressuring the central government to consider its demands has temporarily stabilized the situation and prevented cross-provincial escalation.
In conclusion, unrest in Anbar Province is a stark reminder of Iraq’s unresolved challenges and the cyclical nature of protests. The temporary calm that should follow recent protests is unlikely to last long unless the government takes bold and comprehensive actions to tackle corruption, climate change induced problems, and remedy security sector divisions. PM Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani needs to offer clear pathways for reform and change that recognize the interconnectedness of the country’s conundrums.
AUTHORIZED FOR DISTRIBUTION BY 1-506th S-2Written By: SFC Lowe
Reviewed and Edited By: 1LT Jae Lee
The entirety of this document represents fictional works of the 506th Infantry Regiment Realism Unit, S-2 Intelligence Shop, developed for use within the Arma 3 and Arma Reforger military simulation video games, and exists purely for entertainment and educational purposes only. The story, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed are fictitious. No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred.
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