Operation CLEAR SKIES Phase 03-22 - TASK FORCE ALPHA
S-2 Intelligence Brief//21AUG2022
//SECRET//
S-2 Intelligence Brief//21AUG2022
//SECRET//
Operation/Patrol Time:
- 0600 Local
Weather/Forecast Information:
- Current temp: 75F Today's High: 88F with mostly clear skies, humidity dropping from 33% to 22% by 1400 local. Wind out of the NNW at 5-10mph, constant with limited gusting up to 25mph.
Lighting/Visibility Factors:
- Greater than or equal to 10 miles. Sunrise at 0613 & sunset at 1948.
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) & Aviation Advisory Information
- Self-propelled air defense systems remain present throughout the Severkuldzha plateau. Updated positions have been confirmed in the area near Severkuldzha, as well as locations near Sultanbent, though several other surface-to-air missile batteries have been confirmed across the wider AO.
- NWRC forces have demonstrated limited strike and air combat capabilities via both fixed and rotary wing aircraft. Coalition air operations are advised extreme caution against possible air-to-air engagements initiated by hostile aircraft that may still be launching from central Mary.
Theater/Strategic-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- The NWRC has shifted its focus as of late, moving more personnel and resources in order to protect facilities they view as critical to economic and warfighting functions such as electrical and gas/oil utilities. This change in tactics is purported to be in defense of these utilities, rather than their actual reason, which is to offset impacts made by US forces against key logistics vehicles that the NWRC is currently suffering a shortage from. While this may give NWRC and some of the militia forces time to consolidate and regroup, it will also give US and UN forces the increased breathing room to continue focused aid and relief operations throughout the most impacted areas.
Local/Tactical-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- Review of intelligence collected over the last two weeks has indicated that most of the militants across the southern AO of Mary Province fall into two of the major identified militant groups, the 7/7 Martyrs and the Aswad-Murghab Brotherhood. Primarily, the 7/7 Martyrs are the faction most identified with activities in our AO on the western side of the Severkuldzha plateau. Differences in methodology and motivators are being evaluated and will be detailed in subsequent S-2 products.
Special Info/Patrol Objective-specific Intelligence
- With the successful routing of NWRC and militia forces garrisoned at COP WILSON, forces in the southern valleys of the AO are attempting to consolidate near an oil and gas production facility to the southwest of COP WILSON. S-2's prerogative is that these forces are currently divided across the valley they occupy, with some forward positioned to initiate a potential attack upon the maneuvering of troops from COP WILSON. If this strike is successful, it will pull these forces in close proximity to the COP away from its southern flank, taking the pressure off and allowing supplies to enable the standing up and increased function of supporting operations from COP WILSON.
- 0600 Local
Weather/Forecast Information:
- Current temp: 75F Today's High: 88F with mostly clear skies, humidity dropping from 33% to 22% by 1400 local. Wind out of the NNW at 5-10mph, constant with limited gusting up to 25mph.
Lighting/Visibility Factors:
- Greater than or equal to 10 miles. Sunrise at 0613 & sunset at 1948.
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) & Aviation Advisory Information
- Self-propelled air defense systems remain present throughout the Severkuldzha plateau. Updated positions have been confirmed in the area near Severkuldzha, as well as locations near Sultanbent, though several other surface-to-air missile batteries have been confirmed across the wider AO.
- NWRC forces have demonstrated limited strike and air combat capabilities via both fixed and rotary wing aircraft. Coalition air operations are advised extreme caution against possible air-to-air engagements initiated by hostile aircraft that may still be launching from central Mary.
Theater/Strategic-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- The NWRC has shifted its focus as of late, moving more personnel and resources in order to protect facilities they view as critical to economic and warfighting functions such as electrical and gas/oil utilities. This change in tactics is purported to be in defense of these utilities, rather than their actual reason, which is to offset impacts made by US forces against key logistics vehicles that the NWRC is currently suffering a shortage from. While this may give NWRC and some of the militia forces time to consolidate and regroup, it will also give US and UN forces the increased breathing room to continue focused aid and relief operations throughout the most impacted areas.
Local/Tactical-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
- Review of intelligence collected over the last two weeks has indicated that most of the militants across the southern AO of Mary Province fall into two of the major identified militant groups, the 7/7 Martyrs and the Aswad-Murghab Brotherhood. Primarily, the 7/7 Martyrs are the faction most identified with activities in our AO on the western side of the Severkuldzha plateau. Differences in methodology and motivators are being evaluated and will be detailed in subsequent S-2 products.
Special Info/Patrol Objective-specific Intelligence
- With the successful routing of NWRC and militia forces garrisoned at COP WILSON, forces in the southern valleys of the AO are attempting to consolidate near an oil and gas production facility to the southwest of COP WILSON. S-2's prerogative is that these forces are currently divided across the valley they occupy, with some forward positioned to initiate a potential attack upon the maneuvering of troops from COP WILSON. If this strike is successful, it will pull these forces in close proximity to the COP away from its southern flank, taking the pressure off and allowing supplies to enable the standing up and increased function of supporting operations from COP WILSON.