Operation Frostline Phase 03-26
Task Force Alpha
S-2 Intelligence Brief // 19APR2026
//SECRET//
Operation/Patrol Time & Weather Information
S-2 brief for 19th of March 2026. Good morning, Task Force Alpha! Temperatures have dropped to about 20 F thanks to this blizzard, and road and terrain accessibility were reduced over the last three days hindering both friendly and enemy advance. Local meteorological equipment was apparently damaged during Phase 01 which limited initial local weather reporting accuracy, but is not projected to result in any additional discrepancies. Heavy precipitation is not expected within the operational window, but conditions still favor intermittent snowfall and lowered visibility.
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) & Aviation Advisory Information
Heavily armed militias remain in control of a significant portion of AIRBASE MANTICORE, ahead of today's expected final assault. Visibility, even with FLIR, is expected to be severely impacted for all parties, and normal standoff techniques may need to be modified in order to retain air superiority under bingo weather conditions.
Reports of self-propelled triple A systems continue to surface sporadically. No MANPADS threat has yet been confirmed, but it is well within the technological capability of enemy forces; if you spot such a system anywhere, even unmanned, report it up your chain of command immediately. Task Force Charlie also successfully uncovered a delivery of missiles intended for use in a Javelin system that were being distributed to enemy forces by an unknown third party. None of the articles seem to have left the intended point of sale, but enemy forces are clearly attempting to improve their air defense capability.
Theater/Strategic-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
The JNRC has not shown themselves capable of mounting a near-peer defense against friendly forces, and have decisively lost ground in most areas they have been directly occupying. However, they have exploited blue actions in the form of information operations that are likely to be negatively influencing public sentiment in southeast Merak. Statements issued by the JNRC ruling council claim about eighty percent of the island is without water due to the treatment plant being offline, and they blame us for the damage. Our figures show closer to sixty five percent.
Enemy forces may be exploiting the multiple day-long reduced visibility as a window of opportunity to reposition or reorganize their assets. We will have to wait until the weather breaks to regain the full range of traditional ISR, and they are suspected to be fully aware of that.
Recommendations
Loss of Airbase Manticore is projected to severely weaken enemy logistical capability on the island, but asymmetric and hybrid-style attacks are expected to continue among at least a core contingent.
Due to an unexpected shortage of batteries for issued night vision, 1st platoon was forced to withdraw from the B1 Ammo Depot after evening nautical twilight on 16th of March. Enemy forces were decisively defeated at the bunker farm initially, but may have reoccupied the area after friendlies withdrew.
Priority Intel Requirements (PIR): S-2 is actively seeking any actionable information regarding:
END BRIEF
Task Force Alpha
S-2 Intelligence Brief // 19APR2026
//SECRET//
Operation/Patrol Time & Weather Information
S-2 brief for 19th of March 2026. Good morning, Task Force Alpha! Temperatures have dropped to about 20 F thanks to this blizzard, and road and terrain accessibility were reduced over the last three days hindering both friendly and enemy advance. Local meteorological equipment was apparently damaged during Phase 01 which limited initial local weather reporting accuracy, but is not projected to result in any additional discrepancies. Heavy precipitation is not expected within the operational window, but conditions still favor intermittent snowfall and lowered visibility.
Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) & Aviation Advisory Information
Heavily armed militias remain in control of a significant portion of AIRBASE MANTICORE, ahead of today's expected final assault. Visibility, even with FLIR, is expected to be severely impacted for all parties, and normal standoff techniques may need to be modified in order to retain air superiority under bingo weather conditions.
Reports of self-propelled triple A systems continue to surface sporadically. No MANPADS threat has yet been confirmed, but it is well within the technological capability of enemy forces; if you spot such a system anywhere, even unmanned, report it up your chain of command immediately. Task Force Charlie also successfully uncovered a delivery of missiles intended for use in a Javelin system that were being distributed to enemy forces by an unknown third party. None of the articles seem to have left the intended point of sale, but enemy forces are clearly attempting to improve their air defense capability.
Theater/Strategic-level News & Intelligence Updates, Activity, and Analysis
The JNRC has not shown themselves capable of mounting a near-peer defense against friendly forces, and have decisively lost ground in most areas they have been directly occupying. However, they have exploited blue actions in the form of information operations that are likely to be negatively influencing public sentiment in southeast Merak. Statements issued by the JNRC ruling council claim about eighty percent of the island is without water due to the treatment plant being offline, and they blame us for the damage. Our figures show closer to sixty five percent.
Enemy forces may be exploiting the multiple day-long reduced visibility as a window of opportunity to reposition or reorganize their assets. We will have to wait until the weather breaks to regain the full range of traditional ISR, and they are suspected to be fully aware of that.
Recommendations
- Tightening of Rules of Engagement (ROE) and taking additional consideration during all civilian interaction.
- Pursuit of counter-propaganda objectives to fix enemy information operations, & keep the initiative in the information warfare battlespace.
- Search for intelligence opportunities.
Loss of Airbase Manticore is projected to severely weaken enemy logistical capability on the island, but asymmetric and hybrid-style attacks are expected to continue among at least a core contingent.
Due to an unexpected shortage of batteries for issued night vision, 1st platoon was forced to withdraw from the B1 Ammo Depot after evening nautical twilight on 16th of March. Enemy forces were decisively defeated at the bunker farm initially, but may have reoccupied the area after friendlies withdrew.
- Recent Operations: Elements of MARSOC attached to 24th MEU along with ODA 5221 sustained heavy casualties after returning from reconnaissance actions IVO Libreval to the north. The town was partially evacuated during shelling, but the operational goals there are generally considered to have been successful.
- AO Stability: Control in the local Area of Operations is limited to the W.H.O. Camp, the Old Depot, and the vicinity of the pier. The town of Aubin was mostly destroyed and there is thought to be at least one refugee camp gathering on the island.
- Fuel Shortage: Combat in the center-east part of the island caused a disruption in fuel shortages which was further exacerbated by the blizzard's onset. The fleet is prepared to airlift pallets of fuel, but this is dependent on AB Manticore being secured.
- Civilian Casualties: No unexpected civilian deaths have been reported for several days. Wounded noncombatants should be directed to higher headquarters to have evacuation to the W.H.O. Camp arranged, as it is the designated civil medical support hub at this time.
- Hardware: Enemy forces may have expended their supply of some newer motorized hardware. As referenced earlier, they appear to be in the process of gearing up and improving their armaments.
- Allegiance & Identification: There is no clear division between civilian or military participation, and enemy combatants seen so far generally do not wear flags, unit insignia, or uniforms. At least some of the actors involved are suspected of foreign entanglement.
- Hostile Tactics: Enemy forces have demonstrated a willingness to use hostages and exploit ROE to gain an advantage. Civilian collaborators or plainclothes agents have been seen performing spotting and interference actions.
- Daniel Oygaard (HVI): Lieutenant Governor of the Jamdy Archipelago. He is believed to be in custody of the JPR.
- Carl Ågren (HVI): AGS board member leading the opposition to Bakholdin; he refused to legitimize the worker strike. His status and whereabouts are still not accounted-for, and he was confirmed not present among the dead at the AGS Powerplant.
Priority Intel Requirements (PIR): S-2 is actively seeking any actionable information regarding:
- The identity, command structure, and leadership of the JPR militia;
- Their backers, and what type of tactics or goals they have or are seeking to obtain;
- The exact whereabouts of Lieutenant Governor Oygaard, who was detained on 07MAR26 and is believed to be held in unlawful custody at an unknown location. He is a priority target for S-2 intelligence debriefing.
END BRIEF